Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.384782 0.441107 0.502234 0.573426 0.653987 0.742243 0.846181
2025-07-27 0.315798 0.393301 0.483965 0.597560 0.735769 0.898139 1.103021
2025-08-03 0.264209 0.355212 0.469259 0.621972 0.820314 1.068329 1.400995
2025-08-10 0.208727 0.302162 0.427271 0.605757 0.852333 1.179214 1.643294
2025-08-17 0.162966 0.253413 0.382487 0.578110 0.864618 1.265850 1.866472
2025-08-24 0.133157 0.221583 0.355576 0.570477 0.902746 1.392167 2.161180
2025-08-31 0.109326 0.194183 0.330369 0.560846 0.935885 1.515058 2.467080
2025-09-07 0.094718 0.178801 0.321141 0.574290 1.005979 1.701980 2.893754
2025-09-14 0.077218 0.154971 0.293812 0.553225 1.016543 1.795791 3.184419
2025-09-21 0.065060 0.138381 0.276075 0.545530 1.047993 1.926842 3.551648
2025-09-28 0.054702 0.123123 0.258047 0.534126 1.070653 2.044763 3.909621
2025-10-05 0.049253 0.116717 0.255772 0.551971 1.149305 2.270494 4.484426
2025-10-12 0.042506 0.106451 0.244633 0.551811 1.195992 2.448142 5.002156
2025-10-19 0.037753 0.099680 0.239659 0.563667 1.268630 2.684572 5.661398
2025-10-26 0.033832 0.094035 0.236170 0.578225 1.349159 2.946724 6.403282
2025-11-02 0.028213 0.082862 0.218026 0.557037 1.350129 3.048515 6.835573
2025-11-09 0.023087 0.071709 0.197748 0.527277 1.327438 3.097871 7.165111
2025-11-16 0.019781 0.064739 0.186482 0.517251 1.348431 3.243385 7.716875
2025-11-23 0.016946 0.058409 0.175619 0.506294 1.365482 3.382060 8.269785
2025-11-30 0.015341 0.055417 0.173189 0.516889 1.437019 3.653285 9.152191
2025-12-07 0.012906 0.049117 0.160196 0.496660 1.427404 3.733473 9.602673
2025-12-14 0.011216 0.044833 0.152189 0.488878 1.449011 3.890901 10.253396
2025-12-21 0.009685 0.040665 0.143655 0.477995 1.460553 4.024676 10.861513